The consultation
EirGrid and SONI (the TSOs) published a consultation paper[1] in November 2023 titled Tomorrow’s Energy Scenarios 2023 (TES2023).The consultation period closed on 13th December 2023 with 32 submissions received from industry. The TSOs adjusted the assumptions based on some of the recommendations from stakeholders. The final TES2023 post-consultation report was published in May 2024.
Your views and suggestions
Consultation respondents provided a range of feedback including requests to evaluate scenarios showing:
- More ambitious transition to renewables led generation with a net zero power system by 2035 or earlier.
- Removal of all fossil fuel generation (unabated and abated) and greater diversity in scenarios.
- Scenarios consistent with previous TES publications.
- Stress testing offshore wind targets.
- Potential for divergence in scenarios in Ireland and Northern Ireland.
- Concern that the timeline to achieve a net zero power system for Gas Evolution and Constrained Growth was too slow.
Outcomes
SONI/EirGrid welcome the feedback to the scenarios proposed. While it is not possible to provide scenario analysis that addresses all the suggested variations the following seeks to explain how the suggestions have been considered:
- A net zero power system by 2035 or earlier The TES analytical results presented in the consultation report show a net zero power system operating between 2040–2050 depending on the scenario. This timeline is informed by our initial estimates for build rates and deployment of renewable generation, energy storage, interconnection and negative emissions technology (BECCS). If the deployment rates of these technologies and transmission grid development was accelerated it may be possible to deliver a net zero power system by 2035. To support this, additional sensitivity analysis showing a net zero power system by 2035 has been developed. The results of this analysis are provided in Appendix 9.2 of the final TES 2023 report.
- Removal of all fossil fuel generation (unabated and abated) and greater diversity in scenarios Gas Evolution includes the replacement of natural gas generation by green hydrogen and the scenario shows this being complete by 2045. In this scenario hydrogen generators are primarily responsible for providing dispatchable capacity. By 2040, Offshore Opportunity and Self-Sustaining include significant additions of hydrogen capacity to the existing gas capacity. All scenarios also include various levels of biomethane use.
- Scenarios consistent with previous TES publications In development of TES 2023, we considered retaining and updating the scenarios included in the previous edition of TES published in 2019–2020. Having reviewed changes in the landscape of the energy sector, such as the updated Climate Action Plans, the significant offshore ambition, and potential Hydrogen economy, it was deemed appropriate to develop new scenarios for our analysis in TES 2023.
- Stress testing offshore wind targets The nature of the TES modelling approach – supported by PLEXOS to assess least-cost optimisation of power generation – enables technical review of deployment of generation and storage technologies. Results from our analysis are provided in a Databook accompanying the final TES 2023 report.
- Potential for divergence in scenarios in Ireland and Northern Ireland Due to the constraints of the scenario modelling software SONI/ EirGrid did not consider divergence of scenarios between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
- Timeline to achieve a net zero power system for Gas Evolution and Constrained Growth We recognise the ambition to achieve a net zero power system as quickly as possible. We developed Gas Evolution and Constrained Growth to suit the technologies they employ and their underlying scenario narrative.